Mortgage vs Stock Market
Analyze the opportunity cost of debt repayment versus wealth building.
Decision Factors
Tax Deductible?
Mortgage Interest deduction
Psychologically, being debt-free is great. Mathematically, investing is better if the market return exceeds your effective mortgage rate.
Optimization Result
Investing Wins
By $112,452 after 15 years
$378,406
Growth at 9%
$265,954
Savings at 6.5%
Opportunity Cost
The "Spread" Strategy
Risk Profile
Guaranteed vs. Variable
The Mathematical Choice
When you have extra cash, you face a common dilemma: reduce your liabilities (mortgage) or increase your assets (stocks/bonds). The right answer depends on the "Spread"—the difference between your mortgage interest rate and your expected investment return.
Paying Down Mortgage
Paying down a mortgage at 6.5% interest is mathematically equivalent to a **guaranteed 6.5% return** on your money. It's a risk-free investment in your own equity.
Investing in Stocks
The S&P 500 has historically returned ~10% annually. If your investment return is higher than your mortgage rate, you build more wealth over time by investing. However, this return is **not guaranteed**.
Tax Implications in the USA
The US tax code often favors debt in two ways:
- Mortgage Interest Deduction: If you itemize, you can deduct mortgage interest, which lowers your "Effective Interest Rate."
- Capital Gains Tax: Investing in a taxable account incurs taxes on profits, which reduces your "Effective Investment Return."
Note: This tool uses simplified logic. Consult a financial advisor for specific tax and investment advice tailored to your 2024 tax bracket.
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