Bursa IPO Allotment Probability Calculator

Estimate your chances of securing IPO shares through the MITI or public balloting process based on expected oversubscription rates.

IPO Balloting Strategy

1. Tiered Allocation

Applying for maximum shares requires tying up substantial capital upfront. Since allotments are tiered, the return on invested capital (ROIC) drops sharply for very large applications.

2. Capital Cost

Consider the opportunity cost or financing cost (if taking an IPO loan) of locking your funds during the balloting period compared to the expected profit from the allotment.

Key Benefits

Manage Expectations: Model your expected listing day profits realistically based on probable allotment sizes rather than the full applied amount.

Frequently Asked Questions

Get answers to common questions about using our professional trading tools.

When an IPO is oversubscribed, shares are allocated via a computer-generated balloting process overseen by the Malaysian Issuing House (MIH) or Tricor. Applicants are divided into tiers based on the number of shares applied for. Generally, larger applications have a higher probability of success, but they receive a smaller percentage of the total shares applied for compared to smaller applications.

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A portion of shares in many Malaysian IPOs is reserved for Bumiputera investors approved by MITI. The oversubscription rate for the MITI tranche is typically different (often lower) than the general public tranche, which may result in different allotment probabilities.

No. In an oversubscribed IPO, successful applicants are typically allotted a fixed number of shares based on their tier, which is almost always much lower than the applied amount (e.g., applying for 100,000 shares might only yield an allotment of 5,000 or 10,000 shares).

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